After awfully predicting wrong in Karnataka polls, the Lutyens are at it again
This time on national plank
They have created a counter-narrative of Modi losing sheen based on #Gorakhpur, #Phoolpur and #Alwar-#Ajmer #bypoll results
In fact, #BJP has a bad precedent of losing by elections because the core base of BJP and #RSS is unenthused about voting on non-nationalistic issues
And, for the #Congress to make a comeback is not as easy as Lutyens think. It will be an herculean task to overcome the vote-share deficit purely due to some anti-incumbency
Since the advent of Modi on national sphere 2014, poll data suggests BJP virtually has never lost to
Congress wherever they are in direct contest
In fact, #India has pinned consistent hope on Modi cutting across caste, regional and linguistic barriers
He has the ability of winning elections singlehandedly - period.
I say this with great honesty
Wherever you traverse across the country, people may have been extremely inconvenienced by #GST or #demonetisation, but they are voting for Modi because he wants to clear the mess for country's benefit, not his, they say
I will not be surprised if Modi wins #2019LokSabha election
The fact that #Vajpayee lost election in 2004 due to lot of focus on urban macro-economic issues, has driven RSS-backed Modi to focus on rural India
RSS had learnt a big lesson then after rural India had hounded BJP out of power
Modi may not have announced big bang reforms, but he has taken small steps of building toilets, introducing soil healthcards, bringing neem-coated urea
This have had a solid impact on Indian villages
The recent announcement of doubling #MSP by Modi government will have real impact on farmers because it can potentialy increase farm incomes by 30-40 per cent in one go
Whereas, a farm loan waivers announced by state governments, including many BJP ruled ones, will have zero impact on actual voting populace, because tenant farmers, large and small marginal farmers, are not benefited by it
Only the rich farmers are benefited, for they frequently get access to institutional loans than marginal and small farmers
Whereas, MSP impacts all hues of farming community - tenant farmers, small and marginal farmers and also rich farmers
The virtual doubling of MSP and back-to-back bumper farm produce due to a normal monsoon year across India can create a positive energy for Modi in 2019
On economic plank, there may be a disappointment from several quarters world over for not announcing any big-bang or big-ticket economic reforms, but his untiring focus on formalising India has had a far-reaching impact on Indian informal economy
The formalisation process he began by introducing banking to all of India, then unleashing demonetization and finally bringing in GST as a single tax for entire India
Many agencies and experts are expecting a broad-based growth likely from third quarter of this year, which would give Modi at least 2 quarters of top notch growth creating a completely positive milieu, which the Congress failed in 2014 elections and lost
Going by my interactions with common and poor, besides marginal sections of the society, they would not like the horrendous history of UPA rule to repeat, for they cannot afford to face their policy-paralytic rule, but vote for Modi, who has unblemished intentions
No comments:
Post a Comment