Tuesday, 7 August 2018

#Stalin Is No Glue As #Karunanidhi To Hold DMK



M K Alagiri, M K Stalin and Kanimozhi

With M Karunanidhi dead, what happens to the DMK?

Of course, he held the party together in times of crisis or otherwise
And also, in good times

But, does Stalin has this charishma?

Going by past #TN political history, I predict that the demise of Karunanidhi will open up seemingly dormant struggle for succession

The party WILL split into two or more factions as it happened in aftermath of #MGR passing away, when #AIADMK was split into Janaki and #Jayalalithaa camps, both losing to a resurgent DMK

The death of Jayalalithaa also saw AIADMK splitting

Stalin will be tested by by his bete noire brother Alagiri, who has been keeping low till now
#Alagiri, who was expelled from the party in 2014 for anti-party activities, is known as master organiser and is bound to give hard time for Stalin, though he is calling the shots

He also may be tested by his half-sister Kanimozhi

Of late she has made a veiled attack on Stalin in her poem

Through the poem she made an emotional appeal to Karunanidhi to come back because under Stalin's leadership the party has been suffering defeats after defeats

The half-brother also will be tested by #Maran brothers - #Kalanidhi and #Dayanidhi, who were also sidelined, wield enormous clout in Tamil Nadu, courtesy Sun TV network, which they control

Any fraternal clash would eventually make DMK weaker, which will give benefit to other rising political players in TN, especially #Rajnikanth

BJP also is spreading its wings in Tamil Nadu

If this clash continues, DMK MIGHT face an existential crisis

Friday, 27 July 2018

Countering The Fallacy Of #Lutyens Counter-Narrative Against '#Modi In Runup To 2019 LS Polls


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After awfully predicting wrong in Karnataka polls, the Lutyens are at it again

This time on national plank

They have created a counter-narrative of Modi losing sheen based on #Gorakhpur, #Phoolpur and #Alwar-#Ajmer #bypoll results

In fact, #BJP has a bad precedent of losing by elections because the core base of BJP and #RSS is unenthused about voting on non-nationalistic issues

And, for the #Congress to make a comeback is not as easy as Lutyens think. It will be an herculean task to overcome the vote-share deficit purely due to some anti-incumbency

Since the advent of Modi on national sphere 2014, poll data suggests BJP virtually has never lost to 
Congress wherever they are in direct contest

In fact, #India has pinned consistent hope on Modi cutting across caste, regional and linguistic barriers
He has the ability of winning elections singlehandedly - period.

I say this with great honesty

Wherever you traverse across the country, people may have been extremely inconvenienced by #GST or #demonetisation, but they are voting for Modi because he wants to clear the mess for country's benefit, not his, they say

I will not be surprised if Modi wins #2019LokSabha election

The fact that #Vajpayee lost election in 2004 due to lot of focus on urban macro-economic issues, has driven RSS-backed Modi to focus on rural India

RSS had learnt a big lesson then after rural India had hounded BJP out of power

Modi may not have announced big bang reforms, but he has taken small steps of building toilets, introducing soil healthcards, bringing neem-coated urea

This have had a solid impact on Indian villages

The recent announcement of doubling #MSP by Modi government will have real impact on farmers because it can potentialy increase farm incomes by 30-40 per cent in one go

Whereas, a farm loan waivers announced by state governments, including many BJP ruled ones, will have zero impact on actual voting populace, because tenant farmers, large and small marginal farmers, are not benefited by it

Only the rich farmers are benefited, for they frequently get access to institutional loans than marginal and small farmers

Whereas, MSP impacts all hues of farming community - tenant farmers, small and marginal farmers and also rich farmers

The virtual doubling of MSP and back-to-back bumper farm produce due to a normal monsoon year across India can create a positive energy for Modi in 2019

On economic plank, there may be a disappointment from several quarters world over for not announcing any big-bang or big-ticket economic reforms, but his untiring focus on formalising India has had a far-reaching impact on Indian informal economy

The formalisation process he began by introducing banking to all of India, then unleashing demonetization and finally bringing in GST as a single tax for entire India

Many agencies and experts are expecting a broad-based growth likely from third quarter of this year, which would give Modi at least 2 quarters of top notch growth creating a completely positive milieu, which the Congress failed in 2014 elections and lost

Going by my interactions with common and poor, besides marginal sections of the society, they would not like the horrendous history of UPA rule to repeat, for they cannot afford to face their policy-paralytic rule, but vote for Modi, who has unblemished intentions


Monday, 18 December 2017

2018 Karnataka Poll: Cong On Backfoot Post-Gujarat Poll Results, Dharma Sansad Conclave

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By Bapu Narayankar

Daggers are out against Congress after BJP retained Gujarat

The party and some media are already talking about the direct impact the Gujarat win will have in Karnataka which goes for elections next year

Well, this would unfold in future, but what has come out in the open, for now, is the impact of Dharma Sansad Conclave on Congress poll prospects, considering Siddaramaiah's nefarious intentions to divide people on the basis of religion and caste

Dharma Sansad was held from 26 to 28 November in Udupi

In fact, the participants at Dharma Sansad, who came together, had accused Siddaramaiah for harassing Hindu institutions (attempt to take over Dharmasthala Sri Manjunatheshwara Swamy Temple), divide Hindu society (separate Lingayat religion) and openly encourage Christians to indulge in conversion activities 

They also accused him for appeasing Muslims by way of celebrating Tipu Jayanti patronised by state govermment, something which no erstwhile Chief Minister had done it before

These accusations made by Dharma Sansad participants, especially religious seers, have sent out a clear message to Congress government that they are unhappy with its nefarious intentions

The consolidation of Hindus at Dharma Sansad has rendered Congress jittery, which was reflected in Siddaramaiah branding powerful seers, including Adichunchungiri Mutt and Siddaganga Mutt as enemies of secularism

The seers have always been playing a very decisive role during elections over the years in Karnataka and are potential enough to change the fate of a party

These certainly are dangerous portends for Congress as utter neglect of these constituencies (communities) may cast a shroud of doubt over their electoral prospects in coming assembly election

Time alone will tell ...

Sunday, 5 November 2017

BJP-Isation Of Congress

Image result for karnataka congress

By Bapu Narayankar

Is Congress playing BJP game in the runup to State elections?

Consider these ...

Be it from making Kannada mandatory in schools to singing of official state anthem; from opposing Hindi signboards in Namma Metro to the state flag issue, besides demanding separate religious status for Lingayats ...

Also, consider the proposed Tipu Jayanti celebrations

Yes, Congress is playing politics of polarisation in Karnataka

This, I call BJP-Isation of Congress

Wednesday, 1 November 2017

It Is BJP All The Way, For Now In Gujarat

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By Bapu Narayankar

BJP will win 2017 Gujarat elections

For, Gujaratis are pride-driven

They would not vote against Modi, for he represents Gujarati asmita

Two, BJP enjoys a network of patronage in every sphere of society, from dairy cooperatives to self-help groups and rural banks

So, they would vote for BJP

Three, though there is curiosity and support for Hardik Patel, they may not vote for Congress

For instance, in 2012 elections, there was too much support for Keshubhai Patel, but his Gujarat Parivartan Party could not garner more than 3.6 per cent vote

Four, if Patels are to be given reservation, how is Congress going to reconcile Alpesh Thakore vote base, who led a counter-mobilisation against the Patel demand for quota and is now the emerging face of the Congress' Kashtriya domination?

Five, BJP has an edge among 67 per cent of the total voters (OBC - 37 per cent, ST - 15 per cent and General - 15 per cent)

#BapuNarayankarGujaratPolls #AssemblyElections #GujaratElections #NarendraModi #Modi #Gujarat #Polls


FedBank Appointment: Indian Media Expecting Far Too Much From Trump For Dr Rajan

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Indian media has picked this up from not-so-popular US magazine


Many fools will be optimistic that he would get it

Hardly thinking whether Rajan is keen on working with Trump

For, we know the convoluted comments against Trump by Rajan

His writings also have been against rightist movement and populism
In fact he indirectly referred Trump a populist
The Indian media will go berserk in mirth, writing tons and tons of words on his possible nomination
Either this could happen
HE WOULD NOT BE OFFERED THE JOB AT ALL
OR
RAJAN WOULD REJECT THE OFFER DUE TO TRUMP
Period ...

Wednesday, 11 January 2017

Sahara Birla Diaries: Rahul Gandhi's Lies

As I had commented in one of my previous video talk, that aggressive politics is not the nomenclature of Rahul Gandhi as it is for PM Narendra Modi


I had also predicted that by launching a personal attack on Modi, charging him with corruption charges, Rahul Gandhi will get trapped into the political mesh of the PM


And that exactly happened, when PM, in his address in Varanasi, first mocked at him by saying if he wouldn't have exposed him, there would have been a greater earthquake


And now that he has opened up, people have understood there will be no earthquake for sure


This one came from the biggest opponent Modi himself, but today a party insider Sheila Dikshit squeezed out the sharpness from Rahul Gandhi's attack on Modi by rubbishing the controversial Sahara diaries, a line which BJP had been taking by pointing to a SC judgement, rubbishing the papers to be ficticious


These are the diaries which Rahul Gandhi used to allege personal corruption of PM while he was Gujarat Chief Minister, but ignored Sheila Dikshit's name also figured in the list of monetary beneficiaries


This ignorance reflects lack of aplication of mind and grave complacency excercised by Rahul Gandi and the Congress top brass in accusing the PM


So, what are the options left for Congress and Rahul gandhi?


He will have to find some other way to counter the PM. 


And if he doesn't, and persists with leveling personal corruption charges against PM, then the party will have to sacrifice the three-time former CM, former governor and their UP CM candidate 


And if that happens, it will be like scoring a self goal


Now that denials have started to come out of the Congress camp itself, the validity of the papers have come into serious question.


By Narayan-Chandra Rauf